>Escalation in the Black Sea

>Turkish foreign minister Davutoğlu told in a press conference that Georgia was going to free Turkish captain for a 27.000 TL (aprox. 18.000 USD) bail. The crew was set free again for against a bail of 30.000 TL (aprox. 20.000 USD) last week. He is also traveling to Tbilissi next week.

The capture of Panama flagged but Turkish owned and crew vessel by Georgian coast guard in international waters, of Black Sea 97 miles of Turkish town Sinop, created discomfort among Turkish merchant shipping community. The inactivity of Turkish Navy and Turkish government during the incident was criticized by Chamber of Shipping.

Currently there are at least 4 Turkish owned merchant ships, confiscated by Georgians in Poti harbor.

Abkhazia is at the western end of Georgia. The region is bordered to the north by the Russian Federation. To the east and southeast, Abkhazia is bounded by the Georgian region of Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti; and on the south and southwest by the Black Sea. The norhern border is extremly mountenous and difficult for transportation. Transport by the sea is the most easies and chepest way for the commers. Georgia did not recognized the self procliamed independence of thei region. Therefore Georgians are pressuring foreign flagged ships not to sail to Abkhazia. One way to persuade shiping companies is to confistacate their ship. This is happened to the M/T Buket.

Georgian sentiment and sensitivty about this issue is understandable. So is the reaction of Abkhazia. On Wednesday, 1st September 2009, Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh threatened to destroy any Georgian ship violating the de-facto sea borders of the Georgian rebel region, in a major escalation of a row with Tbilisi over shipping in the Black Sea.

After the last years war with Russia, Georgian maritime forces were reduced to a coast guard. The exact strength of Abkhazian naval forces, are not known. But this recent escalation of words could easily escalate more into a clash. Turkey considers the Black Sea as her area of influence. An armed naval confrontation between Abkhazian (most probably with open or covert Russian help) and Georgia would create considerable headaches for Turkey. There is noting much the Turkish navy actually can do for the protection of Turkish merchant ships except using its diplomacy skill and soft power.

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